During the United States’ recent presidential election campaign, public-opinion polls consistently showed that the economy – and especially unemployment – was voters’ number one concern. The Republican challenger, Mitt Romney, sought to capitalize on the issue, asserting: “The president’s plans haven’t worked – he doesn’t have a plan to get the economy going.”
Nonetheless, Barack Obama was reelected. The outcome may reflect the economy’s slight improvement at election time (as happened when Franklin Roosevelt defeated the Republican Alf Landon in 1936, despite the continuing Great Depression). But Obama’s victory might also be a testament to most US voters’ basic sense of economic reality.
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Sunday, November 11, 2012
Sunday, November 4, 2012
Businessmen as Presidents: A Historical Circle
WITH so much attention on the income divide between the top 1 percent and the other 99 percent of Americans, it might seem that having enormous business wealth wouldn’t be a great qualification for election as president. And if such a candidate pledged to keep taxes low for the wealthy, he would appear to have no chance at all in a troubled economy.
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Saturday, October 6, 2012
Housing Fever Can Work Both Ways
THE boom and bust in the housing market was a dual social epidemic. First, there was an epidemic of positive thinking that led to high expectations for long-term home price appreciation — and for the economy, too. Then, after 2005, an epidemic of negative thinking discouraged many people from buying a house or from spending in general, and kept many employers from hiring.
We would all like to think that our economy makes more sense than that, and, in some ways, it does.
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We would all like to think that our economy makes more sense than that, and, in some ways, it does.
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Friday, September 21, 2012
What Have They Been Thinking? Home Buyer Behavior in Hot and Cold Markets
By Karl E. Case, Robert J. Shiller and Anne Thompson
Between the end of World War II and the year 2000, the U.S. housing market contributed much to the strength of the macro economy. It was a major source of jobs, produced consistently rising home equity, and served as perhaps the most significant channel to the real economy for monetary policy.
But starting with a drop in the S&P/Case–Shiller index for Boston in September of 2005 house prices began to fall in city after city. By the time it was over, home prices were down as much as 32% on a national basis, with many cities down by more than 50 percent, wiping nearly $7 trillion in equity off of the household balance sheet.
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Between the end of World War II and the year 2000, the U.S. housing market contributed much to the strength of the macro economy. It was a major source of jobs, produced consistently rising home equity, and served as perhaps the most significant channel to the real economy for monetary policy.
But starting with a drop in the S&P/Case–Shiller index for Boston in September of 2005 house prices began to fall in city after city. By the time it was over, home prices were down as much as 32% on a national basis, with many cities down by more than 50 percent, wiping nearly $7 trillion in equity off of the household balance sheet.
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The Narrative Structure of Global Weakening
NEW HAVEN – Recent indications of a weakening global economy have led
many people to wonder how pervasive poor economic performance will be in
the coming years. Are we facing a long global slump, or possibly even a
depression?
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Saturday, September 1, 2012
‘Framing’ Prevents Needed Stimulus
WHY have so many teachers, police officers, firefighters and other public workers been laid off since the financial crisis hit — and why are so few being offered new jobs now?
From July 2008 to July 2012, the number of state and local employees nationwide fell by 715,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The reality is actually worse than that figure suggests. The total ended up 1.31 million people below where it would have been had public sector employment simply kept pace with population growth.
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From July 2008 to July 2012, the number of state and local employees nationwide fell by 715,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The reality is actually worse than that figure suggests. The total ended up 1.31 million people below where it would have been had public sector employment simply kept pace with population growth.
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Sunday, August 26, 2012
Free Webinar August 30
From CFO Insight:
In light of recent developments in Europe and the rest of the world, financial markets are often seen as destructive economic forces and unproductive parasites to industrious mankind. Furthermore, they are often labelled diametric opposites to the good society. Yet finance can also be a key driver in societal progress. Financial innovation can promote the public good and help societies achieve wider goals. Hence, finance and the good society have a complex and often opaque relationship to each other.
During this webinar, Robert J. Shiller will present the central arguments of his latest book and discuss with participants the role of finance in society. Are finance and the good society irreconcilable, as public debate seems to suggest? Or are they perhaps inseparable, since finance is essential for many parts of society to progress?
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