NEW HAVEN – Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and the Russian public’s acquiescence in direct government control of news media have many people wondering if Russians are predisposed to authoritarianism. It seems like a sensible question. But I have learned from experience that we have to be very careful about drawing conclusions about national character from isolated events.
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The latest by and about Dr. Robert J. Shiller, Nobel prize winner and author of Irrational Exuberance. Independent and unaffiliated.
Monday, March 14, 2016
Saturday, March 12, 2016
How Wage Insurance Could Ease Economic Inequality
Wage insurance may not be on your radar, but it should be. It helps people who have lost their jobs and cannot find new ones that pay as well. That assistance can reduce economic inequality while providing incentives for unemployed people to go back to work quickly.
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Saturday, February 20, 2016
Popular Attitudes Towards Markets and Democracy: Russia and United States Compared 25 Years Later
By Maxim Boycko and Robert J. Shiller
We repeat a survey we did in the waning days of the Soviet Union (Shiller, Boycko and Korobov, AER 1991) comparing attitudes towards free markets between Moscow and New York. Additional survey questions, from Gibson Duch and Tedin (J. Politics 1992) are added to compare attitudes towards democracy. Two comparisons are made: between countries, and through time, to explore the existence of international differences in allegiance to democratic free-market institutions, and the stability of these differences. While we find some differences in attitudes towards markets across countries and through time, we do not find most of the differences large or significant. Our evidence does not support a common view that the Russian personality is fundamentally illiberal or non-democratic.
We repeat a survey we did in the waning days of the Soviet Union (Shiller, Boycko and Korobov, AER 1991) comparing attitudes towards free markets between Moscow and New York. Additional survey questions, from Gibson Duch and Tedin (J. Politics 1992) are added to compare attitudes towards democracy. Two comparisons are made: between countries, and through time, to explore the existence of international differences in allegiance to democratic free-market institutions, and the stability of these differences. While we find some differences in attitudes towards markets across countries and through time, we do not find most of the differences large or significant. Our evidence does not support a common view that the Russian personality is fundamentally illiberal or non-democratic.
Friday, January 22, 2016
How Stories Drive the Stock Market
Since the stock market began falling at the beginning of this year, there seems to have been a palpable change in the stories we have been hearing. Suddenly there is more willingness to entertain the possibility of a major stock market correction, or of an economic recession.
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Tuesday, January 19, 2016
Economists on the Refugee Path
NEW HAVEN – Today’s global refugee crisis recalls the period immediately after World War II. By one contemporary estimate, there were more than 40 million refugees in Europe alone. These “displaced persons,” as they were called at the time, were forced to flee their homes because of violence, forced relocation, persecution, and destruction of property and infrastructure.
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Saturday, December 5, 2015
Don’t Assume a Fed Action Will Move the Market
Humans don’t behave like computers. That makes life interesting, but it has a serious downside for economists: It is exceedingly difficult to predict the short-term directions of major markets, even when events seem to be entirely predictable.
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Wednesday, November 18, 2015
Crowdfunding or Crowdphishing?
NEW HAVEN – If one were seeking a perfect
example of why it’s so hard to make financial markets work well, one
would not have to look further than the difficulties and controversies
surrounding crowdfunding in the United States. After deliberating for
more than three years, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)
last month issued a final rule
that will allow true crowdfunding; and yet the new regulatory framework
still falls far short of what’s needed to boost crowdfunding worldwide.
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